{"id":638,"date":"2026-08-31T17:40:07","date_gmt":"2026-08-31T17:40:07","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/avexai.io\/blog\/?page_id=638"},"modified":"2026-08-31T17:40:08","modified_gmt":"2026-08-31T17:40:08","slug":"drawdown-simulator","status":"publish","type":"page","link":"https:\/\/avexai.io\/blog\/drawdown-simulator\/","title":{"rendered":"Portfolio Drawdown Simulator: What Would a Crash Cost You?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<style>body.page-id-638 main{max-width:800px;margin-left:auto;margin-right:auto;padding:0 24px;box-sizing:border-box}<\/style>\n\n<div class=\"avex-quick-answer\">\n  <div class=\"qa-label\">Quick answer<\/div>\n  <p><strong>A 50% fall needs a 100% gain to get back \u2014 that asymmetry is the whole point of this tool.<\/strong> Enter your portfolio value and equity allocation, pick a historic crash (or set your own), and see the morning-after number: the paper loss, the gain required to recover, and roughly how long that takes at a chosen return. Everything runs in your browser; nothing is uploaded.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<div class=\"avex-w-dd\">\r\n  <style>\r\n    .avex-w-dd { --o:#ea580c; --o2:#f97316; --od:#c2410c; --n:#0a2540; --pb:#fed7aa; --pl:#fffbf7; --pbg:#fff4e6; font-family:'Inter',-apple-system,BlinkMacSystemFont,sans-serif; line-height:1.6; margin:28px 0; }\r\n    .avex-w-dd * { box-sizing:border-box; margin:0; padding:0; }\r\n    .avex-w-dd .c { background:#fff; border:1px solid var(--pb); border-radius:20px; box-shadow:0 20px 50px rgba(234,88,12,.10); overflow:hidden; max-width:880px; margin:0 auto; }\r\n    .avex-w-dd .g { display:grid; grid-template-columns:1fr 1.1fr; }\r\n    .avex-w-dd .in { padding:34px; border-right:1px solid #f5e6d3; }\r\n    .avex-w-dd .in h2 { font-size:19px; font-weight:700; color:var(--n); margin-bottom:4px; }\r\n    .avex-w-dd .hint { font-size:13.5px; color:#555; margin-bottom:22px; }\r\n    .avex-w-dd .f { margin-bottom:16px; }\r\n    .avex-w-dd .f label { display:block; font-size:13.5px; font-weight:600; color:var(--n); margin-bottom:6px; }\r\n    .avex-w-dd .f input { width:100%; padding:11px 14px; font-size:16px; font-family:inherit; font-weight:600; color:var(--n); border:1.5px solid var(--pb); border-radius:9px; background:var(--pl); }\r\n    .avex-w-dd .f input:focus { outline:none; border-color:var(--o); background:#fff; box-shadow:0 0 0 3px rgba(234,88,12,.1); }\r\n    .avex-w-dd .scen { display:grid; grid-template-columns:1fr 1fr; gap:10px; margin-bottom:16px; }\r\n    .avex-w-dd .scen button { font-family:inherit; font-size:13px; font-weight:600; padding:11px 10px; border:1.5px solid var(--pb); border-radius:9px; background:var(--pl); color:var(--n); cursor:pointer; text-align:left; line-height:1.35; }\r\n    .avex-w-dd .scen button small { display:block; font-weight:400; color:#777; font-size:11.5px; }\r\n    .avex-w-dd .scen button.on { background:var(--n); color:#fff; border-color:var(--n); }\r\n    .avex-w-dd .scen button.on small { color:#94a3b8; }\r\n    .avex-w-dd .res { padding:34px; background:var(--n); color:#fff; display:flex; flex-direction:column; justify-content:center; }\r\n    .avex-w-dd .rl { font-size:12px; font-weight:600; text-transform:uppercase; letter-spacing:.09em; color:#94a3b8; margin-bottom:8px; }\r\n    .avex-w-dd .big { font-size:46px; font-weight:800; letter-spacing:-.03em; line-height:1.05; color:#fff; }\r\n    .avex-w-dd .sub { font-size:14px; color:#cbd5e1; margin-top:10px; }\r\n    .avex-w-dd .brk { margin-top:20px; padding-top:16px; border-top:1px solid rgba(255,255,255,.12); }\r\n    .avex-w-dd .r { display:flex; justify-content:space-between; font-size:13.5px; margin-bottom:8px; gap:12px; }\r\n    .avex-w-dd .r .k { color:#94a3b8; }\r\n    .avex-w-dd .r .v { color:#fff; font-weight:600; text-align:right; }\r\n    .avex-w-dd .cta { padding:22px 34px; background:var(--pbg); border-top:1px solid var(--pb); display:flex; align-items:center; justify-content:space-between; gap:18px; flex-wrap:wrap; }\r\n    .avex-w-dd .cta .t { font-size:14.5px; color:var(--n); font-weight:600; }\r\n    .avex-w-dd .cta .t span { display:block; font-weight:400; color:#555; font-size:13px; }\r\n    .avex-w-dd .btn { display:inline-block; background:var(--o); color:#fff !important; font-weight:600; font-size:14.5px; padding:11px 22px; border-radius:8px; text-decoration:none; box-shadow:0 4px 14px rgba(234,88,12,.25); }\r\n    .avex-w-dd .btn:hover { background:var(--od); }\r\n    .avex-w-dd .note { text-align:center; font-size:12px; color:#888; font-style:italic; max-width:680px; margin:12px auto 0; }\r\n    @media (max-width:820px){ .avex-w-dd .g { grid-template-columns:1fr; } .avex-w-dd .in { border-right:none; border-bottom:1px solid #f5e6d3; } }\r\n  <\/style>\r\n  <div class=\"c\">\r\n    <div class=\"g\">\r\n      <div class=\"in\">\r\n        <h2>Your portfolio &amp; the shock<\/h2>\r\n        <div class=\"hint\">Historic scenarios are approximate S&amp;P 500 peak-to-trough falls (price only).<\/div>\r\n        <div class=\"f\"><label for=\"dd-val\">Portfolio value (\u00a3)<\/label><input id=\"dd-val\" type=\"number\" value=\"250000\" min=\"0\" inputmode=\"decimal\"><\/div>\r\n        <div class=\"f\"><label for=\"dd-eq\">Equity allocation (%) \u2014 the part exposed to the fall<\/label><input id=\"dd-eq\" type=\"number\" value=\"80\" min=\"0\" max=\"100\" inputmode=\"numeric\"><\/div>\r\n        <div class=\"scen\" id=\"dd-scen\">\r\n          <button type=\"button\" data-dd=\"20\">\u221220%<small>Typical correction<\/small><\/button>\r\n          <button type=\"button\" data-dd=\"34\" class=\"on\">\u221234%<small>COVID crash, 2020<\/small><\/button>\r\n          <button type=\"button\" data-dd=\"49\">\u221249%<small>Dot-com, 2000\u201302<\/small><\/button>\r\n          <button type=\"button\" data-dd=\"57\">\u221257%<small>Global Financial Crisis, 2007\u201309<\/small><\/button>\r\n        <\/div>\r\n        <div class=\"f\"><label for=\"dd-custom\">\u2026or custom equity fall (%)<\/label><input id=\"dd-custom\" type=\"number\" value=\"34\" min=\"1\" max=\"90\" inputmode=\"numeric\"><\/div>\r\n        <div class=\"f\"><label for=\"dd-rec\">Assumed recovery return (%\/yr)<\/label><input id=\"dd-rec\" type=\"number\" value=\"7\" step=\"0.5\" inputmode=\"decimal\"><\/div>\r\n      <\/div>\r\n      <div class=\"res\">\r\n        <div class=\"rl\">Your portfolio the morning after<\/div>\r\n        <div class=\"big\" id=\"dd-after\">\u00a3\u2014<\/div>\r\n        <div class=\"sub\" id=\"dd-sub\">\u2026<\/div>\r\n        <div class=\"brk\">\r\n          <div class=\"r\"><span class=\"k\">Paper loss<\/span><span class=\"v\" id=\"dd-loss\">\u2014<\/span><\/div>\r\n          <div class=\"r\"><span class=\"k\">Portfolio-level fall<\/span><span class=\"v\" id=\"dd-port\">\u2014<\/span><\/div>\r\n          <div class=\"r\"><span class=\"k\">Gain needed to get back to peak<\/span><span class=\"v\" id=\"dd-back\">\u2014<\/span><\/div>\r\n          <div class=\"r\"><span class=\"k\">Approx. recovery time<\/span><span class=\"v\" id=\"dd-time\">\u2014<\/span><\/div>\r\n        <\/div>\r\n      <\/div>\r\n    <\/div>\r\n    <div class=\"cta\">\r\n      <div class=\"t\">Run this on your <em>actual<\/em> holdings, not a single number.\r\n        <span>Avex stress-tests your real portfolio \u2014 position by position, currency by currency.<\/span>\r\n      <\/div>\r\n      <a class=\"btn\" href=\"\/contact\">Request early access \u2192<\/a>\r\n    <\/div>\r\n  <\/div>\r\n  <p class=\"note\">Assumes the non-equity portion holds its value during the fall (real bonds\/cash can also move) and a smooth recovery at the chosen rate. Historic falls are rounded, price-only and USD-based \u2014 GBP investors experienced different numbers after FX. Mathematical context only \u2014 not investment advice or a prediction. Capital at risk.<\/p>\r\n  <script>\r\n  (function(){\r\n    var $=function(id){return document.getElementById(id)};\r\n    function gbp(n){ return '\u00a3'+Math.round(n).toLocaleString('en-GB'); }\r\n    var dd=34;\r\n    function calc(){\r\n      var v=parseFloat($('dd-val').value)||0, eq=Math.min(100,Math.max(0,parseFloat($('dd-eq').value)||0))\/100,\r\n          rec=(parseFloat($('dd-rec').value)||0)\/100;\r\n      var fall=dd\/100;\r\n      var loss=v*eq*fall, after=v-loss, portFall=v>0?loss\/v:0;\r\n      $('dd-after').textContent=gbp(after);\r\n      $('dd-sub').textContent='After a '+dd+'% equity fall with '+Math.round(eq*100)+'% in equities.';\r\n      $('dd-loss').textContent='\u2212'+gbp(loss);\r\n      $('dd-port').textContent='\u2212'+(portFall*100).toFixed(1)+'%';\r\n      $('dd-back').textContent = after>0 ? '+'+(((v\/after)-1)*100).toFixed(1)+'%' : '\u2014';\r\n      if(rec>0&&after>0&&v>after){\r\n        var yrs=Math.log(v\/after)\/Math.log(1+rec);\r\n        $('dd-time').textContent='~'+yrs.toFixed(1)+' years at '+(rec*100).toFixed(1)+'%\/yr';\r\n      } else { $('dd-time').textContent = v>after ? 'never at 0% return' : 'no recovery needed'; }\r\n    }\r\n    document.querySelectorAll('#dd-scen button').forEach(function(b){\r\n      b.addEventListener('click',function(){\r\n        document.querySelectorAll('#dd-scen button').forEach(function(x){x.classList.remove('on')});\r\n        b.classList.add('on'); dd=parseFloat(b.dataset.dd); $('dd-custom').value=dd; calc();\r\n      });\r\n    });\r\n    $('dd-custom').addEventListener('input',function(){\r\n      dd=Math.min(90,Math.max(1,parseFloat(this.value)||1));\r\n      document.querySelectorAll('#dd-scen button').forEach(function(x){x.classList.remove('on')});\r\n      calc();\r\n    });\r\n    ['dd-val','dd-eq','dd-rec'].forEach(function(i){ $(i).addEventListener('input',calc); });\r\n    calc();\r\n  })();\r\n  <\/script>\r\n<\/div>\r\n\n\n\n\n<h2>Why losses hurt more than gains help<\/h2>\n\n<p><strong>Percentages are not symmetric: what you lose and what you need back are different numbers.<\/strong> Lose 20% and you need 25% to break even. Lose half and you need to double. The deeper the fall, the faster the required recovery grows \u2014 which is why the table below is worth memorising before the next drawdown, not during it.<\/p>\n\n<table>\n  <thead><tr><th>Equity fall<\/th><th>Gain needed to recover<\/th><th>At ~7%\/yr, roughly<\/th><\/tr><\/thead>\n  <tbody>\n    <tr><td>\u221220% (typical correction)<\/td><td>+25%<\/td><td>~3.3 years<\/td><\/tr>\n    <tr><td>\u221234% (COVID crash, 2020)<\/td><td>+52%<\/td><td>~6.2 years<\/td><\/tr>\n    <tr><td>\u221249% (dot-com, 2000\u201302)<\/td><td>+96%<\/td><td>~10 years<\/td><\/tr>\n    <tr><td>\u221257% (financial crisis, 2007\u201309)<\/td><td>+133%<\/td><td>~12.5 years<\/td><\/tr>\n  <\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n\n<p><em>Recovery times assume a smooth constant return \u2014 real recoveries are anything but. The 2020 rebound took months; 2000\u201302 took most of a decade.<\/em><\/p>\n\n<h2>What your allocation actually does in a crash<\/h2>\n\n<p><strong>The fall that matters is the portfolio-level one, and your equity allocation sets it.<\/strong> An 80% equity portfolio in a \u221234% equity crash falls about 27% overall; at 50% equities, the same crash costs about 17%. That cushion is the honest case for holding anything other than equities \u2014 not higher returns, but a shallower hole and a shorter climb out. The simulator assumes the non-equity part holds its value, which is kind: in 2022, bonds fell alongside stocks.<\/p>\n\n<h2>How to use the result<\/h2>\n\n<p><strong>The useful question isn&#8217;t &#8220;will a crash happen&#8221; \u2014 it&#8217;s &#8220;could I sit through this number without selling&#8221;.<\/strong> Look at the morning-after value with your real numbers in. If the answer is no, the time to change allocation is now, in calm \u2014 not mid-fall, where selling converts a paper loss into a permanent one. A monthly ritual helps here: our free <a href=\"\/blog\/portfolio-review-checklist\/\">portfolio review checklist<\/a> includes a concentration and allocation-drift check, and our guide to <a href=\"\/blog\/how-to-track-investment-portfolio\/\">tracking your investment portfolio<\/a> covers the system around it.<\/p>\n\n<div class=\"avex-sources\" style=\"background:#fafafa\">\n  <h3>About this tool<\/h3>\n  <ol>\n    <li>All computation happens locally in your browser using JavaScript \u2014 no data is uploaded, stored or sent anywhere.<\/li>\n    <li>Historic falls are rounded S&amp;P 500 peak-to-trough declines, price-only and USD-based \u2014 GBP investors experienced different numbers after currency effects. The simulator provides mathematical context only, not a prediction or investment advice. Capital at risk.<\/li>\n  <\/ol>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"schema-faq wp-block-yoast-faq-block\"><div class=\"schema-faq-section\" id=\"faq-question-1788197026641\"><strong class=\"schema-faq-question\">Why does a 50% fall need a 100% gain?<\/strong> <p class=\"schema-faq-answer\">Because the recovery is measured from the lower base. \u00a3100,000 falling 50% leaves \u00a350,000 \u2014 and \u00a350,000 must double to reach \u00a3100,000 again. The formula: required gain = 1 \u00f7 (1 \u2212 fall) \u2212 1, which grows much faster than the fall itself.<br><\/p> <\/div> <div class=\"schema-faq-section\" id=\"faq-question-1788197059376\"><strong class=\"schema-faq-question\">Are the historic crash scenarios exact?<\/strong> <p class=\"schema-faq-answer\">No \u2014 they are rounded, price-only S&amp;P 500 peak-to-trough falls in USD, used as reference points. UK investors in global funds experienced different portfolio-level numbers, and currency moves can soften or deepen a fall in GBP terms.<br><\/p> <\/div> <div class=\"schema-faq-section\" id=\"faq-question-1788197073109\"><strong class=\"schema-faq-question\">Does holding bonds or cash protect me?<\/strong> <p class=\"schema-faq-answer\">It shallows the fall: only the equity portion takes the modelled hit, so 50% in equities roughly halves the portfolio-level drawdown versus 100%. The simulator assumes the non-equity part holds steady \u2014 kind but not guaranteed, as 2022 showed when bonds fell alongside stocks.<br><\/p> <\/div> <div class=\"schema-faq-section\" id=\"faq-question-1788197091543\"><strong class=\"schema-faq-question\">Is my data private?<\/strong> <p class=\"schema-faq-answer\">Yes \u2014 the simulator runs entirely in your browser. Nothing you type is uploaded, stored, or sent to any server.<\/p> <\/div> <\/div>\n\n\n\n<div style=\"background:radial-gradient(ellipse 70% 80% at 0% 0%,rgba(227,114,4,.8) 0%,rgba(227,114,4,.25) 40%,transparent 65%),radial-gradient(ellipse 60% 70% at 100% 100%,rgba(246,167,0,.5) 0%,transparent 60%),linear-gradient(180deg,#000814 0%,#001D3D 100%);color:#fff!important;padding:56px 32px!important;text-align:center!important;margin:48px 0;border-radius:16px;border:1px solid rgba(255,165,50,.18)\">\n  <div style=\"display:inline-block;font-size:11px!important;text-transform:uppercase!important;letter-spacing:1.5px!important;color:#001D3D!important;background:#FFCC33!important;padding:5px 12px!important;border-radius:4px!important;font-weight:700!important;margin:0 0 16px!important;line-height:1.4!important\">Private Wealth Copilot<\/div>\n  <div style=\"font-size:30px!important;margin:0 0 14px!important;letter-spacing:-.5px!important;color:#ffffff!important;font-weight:700!important;line-height:1.2!important\">A single number can&#8217;t stress-test a real portfolio<\/div>\n  <div style=\"color:rgba(255,255,255,.75)!important;margin:0 auto 28px!important;font-size:17px!important;max-width:560px!important;line-height:1.6!important;font-weight:400!important\">Avex AI runs scenarios on your actual holdings \u2014 position\n     by position, currency by currency \u2014 parsed locally from your\n     statements. Read-only by design.<\/div>\n  <a href=\"https:\/\/avexai.io\/contact\" style=\"background:#E37204!important;color:#ffffff!important;padding:14px 32px!important;border-radius:8px!important;font-weight:600!important;text-decoration:none!important;display:inline-block!important;font-size:15px!important;margin:4px 6px!important;text-transform:none!important;letter-spacing:0!important;border:none!important;box-shadow:none!important\">Request Early Access<\/a>\n  <a href=\"https:\/\/avexai.io\/#platform\" style=\"background:transparent!important;color:#ffffff!important;padding:14px 32px!important;border-radius:8px!important;font-weight:600!important;text-decoration:none!important;display:inline-block!important;font-size:15px!important;margin:4px 6px!important;text-transform:none!important;letter-spacing:0!important;border:1.5px solid rgba(255,255,255,.3)!important;box-shadow:none!important\">See the Platform<\/a>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Quick answer A 50% fall needs a 100% gain to get back \u2014 that asymmetry is the whole point of this tool. Enter your portfolio value and equity allocation, pick a historic crash (or set your own), and see the morning-after number: the paper loss, the gain required to recover, and roughly how long that [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":641,"parent":0,"menu_order":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","template":"","meta":{"_angie_page":false,"footnotes":"","_wp_rev_ctl_limit":""},"class_list":["post-638","page","type-page","status-publish","has-post-thumbnail","hentry"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.8 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Portfolio Drawdown Simulator: What Would a Crash Cost You?<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"See your portfolio the morning after a \u221220% to \u221257% equity fall: the paper loss, the gain needed to get back, and the honest recovery timeline. 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